An unfolding policy of stationing US Marines onboard commercial oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz seems dangerously theatrical. The approach threatens a direct confrontation between the US and Iran. That analysis, however, may be too simple.
As the world’s largest oil producer, the US has diminished interest in protecting oil supply lines in the Gulf, begging questions about the need to escalate already-prominent US Navy deployment around the Strait of Hormuz. One answer points to East Asia. Japan, Korea, and Taiwan are seeing ingrained economic imbalances because of their inability to tap into Russian oil supplies. The US move is a diplomatic flare in support of longstanding American allies.
We think East Asia is only half the story. The other half may spotlight growing US frustration with Tehran’s carefree, if not provocative, attitude toward Russian sanctions. With a deep network of informal trade channels worldwide, Iranian middlemen run a cloaked swap market for the Russian economy. That whack-a-mole business is almost impossible for Washington to control.
Putting US Marines on oil tankers probably has more to do with geopolitics than securing supply lines. Recent attempted hijackings aside, the Strait of Hormuz has long been recognized as a choke point because of Iranian near-military activity. In our view, the spotlight should not be on sea-lane safety, but rather referred conflict from the war in Ukraine. ■
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