At Cranganore, we build our worldview by triangulating among day-to-day newsflow, on-the-ground discussions, and a time-tested array of consulting work. We leverage this technique in project assignments, helping our clients to mitigate investment and commercial risk.
We identify sweeping trends over the cycle ahead that investors and companies should aim to exploit. Focusing on portfolio and business minutiae may be pointless, if the effort does not align with the sheer force of economic momentum.
• Artificial Intelligence Deployment
AI is often debased by equating it to machine learning. This substandard definition prevails because it helps us to frame a discipline that is unshackled from convention and undermine a field that provokes anxiety. Yet the cost of labor, both real and implied, suggests that AI is an essential tool for businesses to raise their competitiveness. We argue that AI is set to become a synonym for outsourcing, especially for contained decision processes.
• Cybersecurity Pivot
The rise of state actors crystallizes the need for companies to focus operating budgets on cybersecurity matters. Unlike in the past, when cybersecurity was considered a useful priority because of the public-relations impact of a major hack, companies worldwide now realize that vigilant cybersecurity standards are an article of corporate survival. The cost of recovering digital infrastructure that has been compromised looms greater than ever.
• Ecosystem Buoyancy
Constraints in cross-border activity mean that investors will support local startups more aggressively than in the past. Silicon Valley becomes a prominent metaphor for cities that offer robust fiscal incentives in order to strengthen their entrepreneurial backbone, enriching the pool of venture opportunities. New-to-market firms take advantage of expanding peer networks, while more established companies gain from access to workforce talent.
• Infrastructure Demand
Many governments aim to bolster their economies with deep infrastructure programs to recover from the pandemic. While that effort is obvious in the US, we will see similar programs rolled out across mature and developing economies. A traditional focus means roads and bridges, but we think comprehensively to include social infrastructure, such as state-funded healthcare, omnipresent broadband, and vocational education.
• Wellness and Health Focus
A global emphasis on preventive healthcare is a catalyst for the wellness industry. Companies in this sector are wide-ranging; they include those with a mental, physical, and spiritual focus. While risk-tolerant investors have been drawn to dietary supplement businesses or organic food culture in recent decades, new-era deals may exist in cannabis-related or health-tech startups. The high cost of traditional medicine will propel the industry for the years ahead.
We list economic issues that may impact private and public markets, as well as commercial interests. These headline concerns could introduce additional volatility into our outlook. They transcend discrete industrial sectors with uncertain, variable consequence.
• Chinese Statecraft
Beijing’s opacity at the start of the outbreak may have permanently stained its efforts at building more robust international ties. Weak cooperation on public-health issues further amplified tensions with Washington over technology and human rights. As the pandemic evolved, Chinese officials focused on vaccine diplomacy to rebuild its global stature. Yet many nations are turning away from this assistance, as Western vaccines prove more durable.
• Food Security
Addressing food security is an oblique approach to solving world hunger. Scientifically, the impact of climate change is mitigating crop yields. Diplomatically, smaller nations are likely to hoard their foodstuffs as their adversaries try to weaponize agriculture. This point favors the US economy, given how it dominates the global food industry, but it also favors those nations with strong rural infrastructure to bolster primary-sector output.
• Trade Realignment
Unfettered globalization is a policy relic. The pandemic shuttered borders; the war in Ukraine reminds us that borders are to be defended. Going forward, we envision an intense focus on national and regional supply-chain development. Western economies may be best equipped to handle this transition, with China and Russia increasingly isolated. This fragmentation will mean new-found opportunities for investors and companies alike.
If you represent a qualified capital source, we would like to talk with you this week. Our proven investment-strategy skills can be deployed to research due diligence concerns or prepare for board-level evaluation, among other relationship opportunities. With conflict-free insight for small and large institutions, our executive management is available around-the-clock to discuss portfolio-related issues. Our consulting energies are aligned with family offices, investment companies, academic endowments, non-profit organizations, sovereign wealth funds, wealth managers, and commercial banks.
Our perspectives in the Thematic Outlook table were last updated in April 2022.
Comments, opinions, placards, and testimonials published on this site are never to be construed as a solicitation for a securities transaction or direct-investment opportunity. They are presented strictly for informational and/or educational purposes.
Cranganore may receive compensation from clients for expressing strategic views on a particular geography, industry, or asset class. While we strive for objectivity in our written material, readers should independently affirm our outlook through reports and/or commentaries obtained through other research channels. As a matter of compliance policy, our corporate officers do not hold securities positions in clients’ companies unless otherwise disclosed. Additional information available.
Read the fine print. Cranganore operates worldwide. However, the company cannot offer all services in every jurisdiction or to all businesses.We may act in concert with locally-regulated entities in some cases.